Orgryte IS 2-3 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orgryte IS's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Orgryte IS have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 7W 2D 1L at Gamla Ullevi — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Goteborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 66% versus IFK Goteborg 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 59% | IFK Goteborg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.55 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.779 / defence 1.089 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.743 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.317. Orgryte IS's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IFK Goteborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Orgryte IS games / 37 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Goteborg 3.85. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | IFK Goteborg 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Orgryte IS 1.55 / IFK Goteborg 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.779 / def 1.089 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.743 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.07
IFK Goteborg xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg?
Orgryte IS 2 - 3 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 49% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (0.78) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.74x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.91
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.62
1.07
IFK Goteborg xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.07 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 13W 9D 10L from 32 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 4D 12L across 32 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.62 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 8W 3D 5L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 9W 2D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.31 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: IFK Goteborg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 16W 4D 12L in their last 32 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IFK Goteborg's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.69 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
2
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg?
From 2 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 0, IFK Goteborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 75%, IFK Goteborg 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Orgryte IS and 50% for IFK Goteborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 44%; IFK Goteborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 31% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Orgryte IS's matches and 50% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Orgryte IS 2-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.55 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.74 / defence 1.27, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 26%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 59%, IFK Goteborg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.50 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.