Halmstad 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Halmstad and IF Elfsborg meet at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Halmstad (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Halmstad have posted 3W 3D 4L at Örjans Vall — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Örjans Vall. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Örjans Vall this season.
IF Elfsborg have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Halmstad. A 1.30 PPG lead over IF Elfsborg (1.70 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Halmstad have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, IF Elfsborg in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to IF Elfsborg, who have claimed 6 wins from 8 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Halmstad winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 38% versus IF Elfsborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 48% | IF Elfsborg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.17 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.709 / defence 1.303 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.902 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.349. Halmstad's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Halmstad games / 37 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 28% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 47%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | IF Elfsborg 2.13. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
IF Elfsborg lead the H2H ledger, but Halmstad carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment. Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 55% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Halmstad (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Halmstad 20% | IF Elfsborg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 28% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Halmstad 1.17 / IF Elfsborg 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.709 / def 1.303 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.902 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.58
IF Elfsborg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Halmstad 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 28% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Halmstad and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
Record (8 meetings): Halmstad 2W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 6W.
What form are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg in?
Halmstad (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.71x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.90x) against Halmstad's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
28%
3.54
25%
4.02
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.76
1.58
IF Elfsborg xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
17.28
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.58 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Halmstad come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 8D 32L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.42 PPG from 60 outings (25W 10D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Halmstad against 1.42 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Halmstad's home form reads 12W 5D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (9W 4D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.62 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 20W 8D 32L in their last 60 games (1.13 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 10D 25L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Halmstad's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.37 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 6-1 on 3 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Halmstad
1
Draws
6
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Halmstad 1-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 33%, IF Elfsborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Halmstad) and 57% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 37% of games; IF Elfsborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Halmstad's recent matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Halmstad's recent games and 57% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Halmstad and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 8, as Halmstad and IF Elfsborg drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.17 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.58 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.71 / defence 1.30 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 28% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 47%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 48%, IF Elfsborg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.13 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.