Djurgardens IF 2-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sirius make the trip to 3Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Monday 18 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Djurgardens IF's home record at 3Arena: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sirius have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.90 for Sirius. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Djurgardens IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sirius in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Djurgardens IF, who have won 6 of the last 9 meetings against Sirius — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 8–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Djurgardens IF and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 48% versus Sirius 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 42% | Sirius 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.04 xG and Sirius 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.338 / defence 0.943 | Sirius attack 1.285 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.296. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Djurgardens IF games / 37 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 49% | Draw 22% | Sirius 30%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Sirius 3.33. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | Sirius 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 49% | Draw 22% | Sirius 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.04 / Sirius 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.338 / def 0.943 | Sirius attack 1.285 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Sirius xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 May 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Djurgardens IF 2 - 3 Sirius.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 49% chance of winning, Sirius a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Record (9 meetings): Djurgardens IF 6W | Draws 1 | Sirius 2W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.34) and Sirius's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.28x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.65
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.61
1.57
Sirius xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
13%
7.69
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
4%
25.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.57 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 15D 16L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (23W 11D 26L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.33 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 14W 11D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.67 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 15D 16L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while Sirius have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Sirius away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.77 PPG; Sirius away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sirius in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 8-2 on 29 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Sirius have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Djurgardens IF, 77% for Sirius — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Djurgardens IF) and 63% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Djurgardens IF's games and 77% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 63% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sirius in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Djurgardens IF 2-3 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.04 xG and Sirius 1.57 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.34 / defence 0.94 against Sirius attack 1.28 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 49% | Draw 22% | Sirius 30%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 42%, Sirius 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.70 PPG, Sirius 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.