Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 44%, yet in-form Gais provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasteras SK FK vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Gais to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Gais's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Vasteras SK FK's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vasteras SK FK register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Gais in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Gais 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Gais trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 53% versus Gais 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 47% | Gais 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 2.03 xG and Gais 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.103 / defence 1.371 | Gais attack 0.967 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.316. Data: 6 Vasteras SK FK games / 36 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 44% | Draw 23% | Gais 33%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Gais 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gais (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 90% | Gais 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 44% | Draw 23% | Gais 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Vasteras SK FK 2.03 / Gais 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.103 / def 1.371 | Gais attack 0.967 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Gais xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Gais kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Gais kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 1 Gais.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Gais is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 44% chance of winning, Gais a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
Record (6 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 3W | Draws 0 | Gais 3W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Gais in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Gais (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
44%
2.27
23%
4.29
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.77
1.74
Gais xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
4%
23.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.74 for Gais, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 5D 19L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (14W 10D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Gais carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 4W 3D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.60 points per game from 15 outings (6W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Gais in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 5D 19L in their last 30 games (0.77 PPG), while Gais have gone 14W 10D 6L in their last 30 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.00 PPG; Gais away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Gais runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gais have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2021, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Gais specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
4
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Gais have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 67%, Gais 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasteras SK FK) and 53% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 60% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 53% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Gais tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Gais in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Vasteras SK FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Vasteras SK FK 0-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 2.03 xG and Gais 1.74 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasteras SK FK fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.10 / defence 1.37 against Gais attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 44% | Draw 23% | Gais 33%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 47%, Gais 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gais's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.77. Form held, and they took the win. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Gais (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.