Degerfors IF 0-5 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 49%, yet in-form Malmo FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Malmo FF travel to Stora Valla to take on Degerfors IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 July 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 3W 0D 1L at Stora Valla — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stora Valla. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Malmo FF's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 40% and Malmo FF 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 40% | Malmo FF 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.86 xG and Malmo FF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.102 / defence 0.960 | Malmo FF attack 1.230 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.112. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Degerfors IF games / 41 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 49% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 25%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Malmo FF 4.00. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Malmo FF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 25% | Malmo FF 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 49% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Degerfors IF 1.86 / Malmo FF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.102 / def 0.960 | Malmo FF attack 1.230 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Malmo FF xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Degerfors IF 0 - 5 Malmo FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 49% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Degerfors IF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.82
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.18
1.31
Malmo FF xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
4%
25.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.31 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 2L across 10 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Malmo FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Malmo FF away?
Degerfors IF's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 2.25 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2021, when Malmo FF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Malmo FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 25%, Malmo FF 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Degerfors IF and 75% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Degerfors IF's games and 100% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Degerfors IF's matches and 75% of Malmo FF's.
Do Degerfors IF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Degerfors IF 0-5 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.86 xG and Malmo FF 1.31 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Malmo FF outscored their 1.31 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Malmo FF attack 1.23 / defence 1.11, drawn from 10/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 49% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 25%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Malmo FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 40%, Malmo FF 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.