Mjallby AIF 0-2 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Malmo FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 7W 2D 1L at Strandvallen — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Malmo FF are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 58% and Malmo FF 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 51% | Malmo FF 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.12 xG and Malmo FF 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.750 / defence 0.821 | Malmo FF attack 1.512 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.169. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.512 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Mjallby AIF games / 42 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 27% | Draw 30% | Malmo FF 43%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Malmo FF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 30% | Malmo FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 27% | Draw 30% | Malmo FF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.12 / Malmo FF 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.750 / def 0.821 | Malmo FF attack 1.512 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Malmo FF xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 2 Malmo FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 27% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.75) and Malmo FF's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
27%
3.66
30%
3.35
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.57
1.45
Malmo FF xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
15.60
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.45 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 12D 14L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 2.02 PPG from 41 outings (24W 11D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 10W 6D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Mjallby AIF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Malmo FF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.22 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 15W 12D 14L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 24W 11D 6L in their last 41 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Malmo FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.80 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mjallby AIF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Malmo FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 55%, Malmo FF 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Mjallby AIF and 75% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Mjallby AIF's games and 70% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 75% of Malmo FF's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Mjallby AIF 0-2 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.12 xG and Malmo FF 1.45 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.75 / defence 0.82 against Malmo FF attack 1.51 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 27% | Draw 30% | Malmo FF 43%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 51%, Malmo FF 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Malmo FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.