Orebro SK 0-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 37%, yet in-form Hammarby FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 18 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 6W 1D 3L at Behrn Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hammarby FF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Hammarby FF are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hammarby FF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Orebro SK 1W, Hammarby FF 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2020, ended 2–1 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 48% versus Hammarby FF 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 60% | Hammarby FF 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.38 xG and Hammarby FF 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.829 / defence 1.020 | Hammarby FF attack 1.103 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.157. Data: 40 Orebro SK games / 40 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 37% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 33%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Hammarby FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hammarby FF (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 60% | Hammarby FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 37% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Orebro SK 1.38 / Hammarby FF 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.829 / def 1.020 | Hammarby FF attack 1.103 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Hammarby FF xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF?
Orebro SK 0 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF part of?
Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 37% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Orebro SK and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Hammarby FF?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Hammarby FF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.10x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
37%
2.74
31%
3.27
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.68
1.30
Hammarby FF xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.30 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orebro SK come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 7D 19L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.40 PPG from 40 outings (14W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.40 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Orebro SK's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (7W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.68 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 70%.
Last 40 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 14W 7D 19L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 14W 14D 12L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Hammarby FF away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.63 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 3-0 on 27 Jul 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
0
Draws
3
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Hammarby FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Hammarby FF 3-2 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 53%, Hammarby FF 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Orebro SK and 90% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Orebro SK's games and 74% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Orebro SK's matches and 90% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Orebro SK and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Orebro SK 0-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.38 xG and Hammarby FF 1.30 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Hammarby FF attack 1.10 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 37% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 33%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 60%, Hammarby FF 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.23 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.