Djurgardens IF 5-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sirius make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 19 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sirius have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Djurgardens IF. A 0.90 PPG lead over Sirius (2.10 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 48% versus Sirius 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 55% | Sirius 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.07 xG and Sirius 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.109 / defence 0.677 | Sirius attack 0.897 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.165. Sirius bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Djurgardens IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.677 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Djurgardens IF games / 40 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 68% | Draw 21% | Sirius 11%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Sirius 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 30% | Sirius 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 68% | Draw 21% | Sirius 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 45% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.07 / Sirius 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.109 / def 0.677 | Sirius attack 0.897 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Sirius xG
45%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 July 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Djurgardens IF 5 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 68% chance of winning, Sirius a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Sirius (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.11) and Sirius's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.90x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.69
11%
9.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.77
0.71
Sirius xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
9.41
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
74.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.71 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 40 games, going 20W 9D 11L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (12W 14D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 11W 5D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.35 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 65%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 20W 9D 11L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Sirius have gone 12W 14D 14L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Sirius away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.90 PPG; Sirius away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sirius in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 8-2 on 29 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Sirius have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 50%, Sirius 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Djurgardens IF and 60% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Sirius in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Djurgardens IF's games and 60% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 60% of Sirius's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sirius in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Sirius 5-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.07 xG and Sirius 0.71 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.11 / defence 0.68 against Sirius attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 68% | Draw 21% | Sirius 11%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 55%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.