Sirius 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 24 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 64% versus Degerfors IF 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 64% | Degerfors IF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.83 xG and Degerfors IF 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.918 / defence 0.994 | Degerfors IF attack 0.809 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.176. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Sirius games / 11 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 57% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 18%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 60% | Degerfors IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 57% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Sirius 1.83 / Degerfors IF 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.918 / def 0.994 | Degerfors IF attack 0.809 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Sirius (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Degerfors IF xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Sirius vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Sirius 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Sirius vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Degerfors IF part of?
Sirius vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 57% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sirius and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Degerfors IF in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (0.92) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.81x) against Sirius's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.86
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.78
0.95
Degerfors IF xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
3%
35.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sirius and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Sirius and 0.95 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 3D 5L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Sirius against 1.27 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Sirius are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.18 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Degerfors IF away?
Sirius's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.75 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 0-3 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Sirius
2
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Sirius have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Degerfors IF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 50%, Degerfors IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Sirius and 25% for Degerfors IF.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sirius's recent matches and 50% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sirius's recent games and 25% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.83 xG and Degerfors IF 0.95 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Degerfors IF attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 57% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 18%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 64%, Degerfors IF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.09 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.