IFK Norrkoping 0-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 11 as IFK Norrkoping welcome BK Hacken to PlatinumCars Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping at PlatinumCars Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
BK Hacken — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
IFK Norrkoping are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IFK Norrkoping register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, BK Hacken in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
IFK Norrkoping in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Norrkoping 70% and BK Hacken 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 60% | BK Hacken 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.65 xG and BK Hacken 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.116 / defence 0.988 | BK Hacken attack 1.116 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.157. Data: 40 IFK Norrkoping games / 40 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 44% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 28%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | BK Hacken 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 90% | BK Hacken 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 44% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.65 / BK Hacken 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.116 / def 0.988 | BK Hacken attack 1.116 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.28
BK Hacken xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
IFK Norrkoping 0 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 44% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 1.12x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.51
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.92
1.28
BK Hacken xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
5%
18.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.28 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 40 games, going 18W 9D 13L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.52 PPG from 40 outings (15W 16D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Norrkoping on 1.58 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 9W 7D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (4W 12D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; BK Hacken in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 18W 9D 13L in their last 40 games (1.58 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 15W 16D 9L in their last 40 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or BK Hacken away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.70 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.20 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: BK Hacken have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2021, when BK Hacken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Norrkoping's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Norrkoping
4
Draws
5
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, BK Hacken have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when BK Hacken 2-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
BK Hacken see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IFK Norrkoping at 75%, BK Hacken at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (IFK Norrkoping) and 35% (BK Hacken).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of IFK Norrkoping's games and 65% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 35% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BK Hacken defy the odds to beat IFK Norrkoping 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IFK Norrkoping 0-1 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.65 xG and BK Hacken 1.28 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against BK Hacken attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 44% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 28%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 60%, BK Hacken 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
BK Hacken's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.58 PPG, BK Hacken 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.