Mjallby AIF 2-3 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees IFK Varnamo travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 1.70 (IFK Varnamo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mjallby AIF, 1 for IFK Varnamo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 39% versus IFK Varnamo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 35% | IFK Varnamo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.82 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.667 / defence 1.014 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.146 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.225. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Mjallby AIF games / 54 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 22% | Draw 27% | IFK Varnamo 51%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | IFK Varnamo 1.96. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | IFK Varnamo 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 22% | Draw 27% | IFK Varnamo 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.82 / IFK Varnamo 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.667 / def 1.014 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.146 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.42
IFK Varnamo xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 3 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 22% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (3 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
22%
4.60
27%
3.69
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.25
1.42
IFK Varnamo xG
4.60
22%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
5%
19.10
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 15.0 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.42 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 21W 14D 19L from 54 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 23L across 54 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.43 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 8W 9D 10L from 27 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 10W 5D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.09 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 14D 19L in their last 54 games (1.43 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Varnamo's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.22 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2025, when Mjallby AIF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2025, when IFK Varnamo 0-5 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 56%, IFK Varnamo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Mjallby AIF) and 59% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 26% of games; IFK Varnamo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 52% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 59% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out Mjallby AIF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Mjallby AIF 2-3 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.82 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.42 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.67 / defence 1.01 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.15 / defence 0.85, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 22% | Draw 27% | IFK Varnamo 51%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 35%, IFK Varnamo 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.43 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.