Sevilla 1-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 35%, yet in-form Girona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sevilla vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Girona travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla in La Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Sevilla — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Sevilla's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sevilla are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Girona's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Girona — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Girona have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Sevilla.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Sevilla 2–0 Girona — a Sevilla win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Girona have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Girona trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 57% versus Girona 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 50% | Girona 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.29 xG and Girona 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.920 / defence 1.182 | Girona attack 0.969 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.119. Data: built from Sevilla's last 60 games and Girona's last 60.
Result probabilities: Sevilla 35% | Draw 30% | Girona 35%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.82 | Draw 3.38 | Girona 2.86. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Sevilla 35% and Girona 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sevilla 50% (last 10 home games) | Girona 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 35% | Draw 30% | Girona 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sevilla 1.29 / Girona 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.920 / def 1.182 | Girona attack 0.969 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Sevilla and Girona level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Girona xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sevilla vs Girona FAQs
What time does Sevilla vs Girona kick off?
Sevilla vs Girona kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Girona?
Sevilla 1 - 1 Girona.
Where is Sevilla vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Girona part of?
Sevilla vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 35% chance of winning, Girona a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sevilla and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sevilla vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (0.92) and Girona's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sevilla's last 60 games and Girona's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
35%
2.82
30%
3.38
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.58
1.28
Girona xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sevilla vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.28 for Girona, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 14D 29L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 17W 15D 28L from 60 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 1.08 PPG, Girona on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 30 home games (10W 7D 13L).
On the road, Girona have gone 7W 8D 15L from their last 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.08 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Girona
Blended
Sevilla (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sevilla
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Sevilla vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Sevilla and Girona in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Girona have gone 17W 15D 28L in their last 60 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Girona away?
Sevilla's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.23 PPG; Girona away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from January 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2024, when Girona won Girona 5-1 Sevilla.
Sevilla's record when hosting Girona specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sevilla
1
Draws
5
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Sevilla vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sevilla have won 2, Girona have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Sevilla 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 53%, Girona 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sevilla) and 47% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Girona in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sevilla vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sevilla and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sevilla's games and 57% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sevilla and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sevilla's recent games and 47% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Sevilla's recent matches and 73% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla and Girona finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.29 xG and Girona 1.28 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Girona attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 35% | Draw 30% | Girona 35%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 50%, Girona 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.08 PPG, Girona 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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