Oviedo 1-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oviedo vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Girona travel to Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere to take on Oviedo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oviedo stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oviedo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oviedo have posted 1W 5D 4L at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Girona — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Girona's 1.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Oviedo's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oviedo, 0 for Girona and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Oviedo trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Girona trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oviedo 29% versus Girona 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oviedo 33% | Girona 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oviedo 0.68 xG and Girona 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oviedo attack 0.488 / defence 0.949 | Girona attack 1.051 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.129. Oviedo's attack strength of 0.488 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Oviedo games / 59 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oviedo 21% | Draw 34% | Girona 45%. Fair-value odds: Oviedo 4.76 | Draw 2.94 | Girona 2.22. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Oviedo's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oviedo 20% | Girona 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oviedo vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oviedo 21% | Draw 34% | Girona 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Oviedo 0.68 / Girona 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Oviedo attack 0.488 / def 0.949 | Girona attack 1.051 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Girona (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Oviedo xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Girona xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oviedo vs Girona kick off?
Oviedo vs Girona kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
What was the final score in Oviedo vs Girona?
Oviedo 1 - 0 Girona.
Where is Oviedo vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
What competition is Oviedo vs Girona part of?
Oviedo vs Girona is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Oviedo vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Oviedo a 21% chance of winning, Girona a 45% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oviedo vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Oviedo and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Oviedo vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oviedo and Girona?
Record (1 meetings): Oviedo 0W | Draws 1 | Girona 0W.
What form are Oviedo and Girona in?
Oviedo (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Girona (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oviedo's attack rating (0.49) and Girona's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Oviedo's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
21%
4.76
34%
2.95
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Oviedo xG
Total xG
1.80
1.12
Girona xG
4.76
21%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.67
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 18.5 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oviedo vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Oviedo and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Oviedo and 1.12 for Girona, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Oviedo vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oviedo come into this having played 21 games, going 2W 7D 12L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Oviedo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Girona sit at 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Oviedo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oviedo's home form reads 1W 5D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Girona have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Oviedo are averaging 0.52 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oviedo have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oviedo
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oviedo and Girona in coming into this match?
Oviedo have gone 2W 7D 12L in their last 21 games (0.62 PPG), while Girona have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oviedo at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oviedo at home: 0.80 PPG; Girona away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oviedo and Girona runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Oviedo
1
Draws
0
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oviedo and Girona?
From 2 meetings on record, Oviedo have won 1, Girona have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oviedo and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Oviedo 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Oviedo and Girona?
Oviedo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oviedo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oviedo 20%, Girona 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Oviedo) and 60% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Oviedo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Oviedo have failed to score in 70% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oviedo home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oviedo play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Oviedo's recent matches and 70% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oviedo vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Oviedo's recent games and 60% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oviedo and Girona tend to score early?
Oviedo have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Girona in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oviedo defy the odds to beat Girona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oviedo beat Girona 1-0 at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oviedo 0.68 xG and Girona 1.12 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oviedo attack 0.49 / defence 0.95 against Girona attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oviedo 21% | Draw 34% | Girona 45%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Oviedo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oviedo 33%, Girona 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oviedo's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Girona's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Oviedo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oviedo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.