Cadiz 0-0 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Sociedad (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Cadiz face Real Sociedad.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Real Sociedad meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cadiz have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Cadiz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Real Sociedad (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Real Sociedad's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Real Sociedad are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Real Sociedad, who have 3 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2023, ended Cadiz 0–0 Real Sociedad — a draw.
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 40% versus Real Sociedad 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 29% | Real Sociedad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.90 xG and Real Sociedad 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.795 / defence 1.040 | Real Sociedad attack 1.205 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.121. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Real Sociedad have an above-average attack rating of 1.205, which lifts their away xG to 1.41. Data: built from Cadiz's last 55 games and Real Sociedad's last 55.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 22% | Draw 32% | Real Sociedad 46%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.59 | Draw 3.14 | Real Sociedad 2.16. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cadiz 40% (last 10 home games) | Real Sociedad 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, matchday 18 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Thursday 21 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 22% | Draw 32% | Real Sociedad 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Cadiz 0.90 / Real Sociedad 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.795 / def 1.040 | Real Sociedad attack 1.205 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Real Sociedad xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Real Sociedad FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Cadiz vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Real Sociedad?
Cadiz 0 - 0 Real Sociedad.
Where is Cadiz vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Real Sociedad part of?
Cadiz vs Real Sociedad is a La Liga fixture (matchday 18) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 22% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cadiz and Real Sociedad will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Cadiz vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.80x the league average against Real Sociedad's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (1.21x) against Cadiz's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 55 games and Real Sociedad's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
22%
4.59
32%
3.14
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.31
1.41
Real Sociedad xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 14.0 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Real Sociedad Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.41 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Cadiz have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 20D 23L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Real Sociedad's form line: 29W 14D 12L from 55 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Real Sociedad are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 27 home games (9W 10D 8L).
On the road, Real Sociedad have gone 13W 6D 8L from their last 27 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.45 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
Cadiz (Home) vs Real Sociedad (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Cadiz vs Real Sociedad Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 20D 23L in their last 55 games (1.02 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 29W 14D 12L in their last 55 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.37 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Cadiz and Real Sociedad, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Sociedad won Real Sociedad 3-0 Cadiz on 12 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cadiz
2
Draws
4
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Real Sociedad H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Sociedad?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 0, Real Sociedad have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Real Sociedad last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2024: Real Sociedad 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 37%, Real Sociedad 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cadiz) and 44% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 37%; Cadiz have failed to score in 41% of games; Real Sociedad in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Real Sociedad Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Real Sociedad matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cadiz's recent matches and 48% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Real Sociedad matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cadiz's recent games and 44% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Real Sociedad matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Cadiz's recent matches and 78% of Real Sociedad's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cadiz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz and Real Sociedad finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.90 xG and Real Sociedad 1.41 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cadiz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Real Sociedad landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Real Sociedad attack 1.21 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 22% | Draw 32% | Real Sociedad 46%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 29%, Real Sociedad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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