Athletic Club 1-0 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Athletic Club face Las Palmas.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Athletic Club host Las Palmas at San Mamés Barria in La Liga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Athletic Club — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Athletic Club have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Las Palmas stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Las Palmas have posted 3W 1D 5L from their last 9 away outings — 1.11 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.11 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Athletic Club at 1.80 PPG versus Las Palmas's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Athletic Club in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 41% versus Las Palmas 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 53% | Las Palmas 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.85 xG and Las Palmas 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.532 / defence 0.979 | Las Palmas attack 0.744 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.124. Athletic Club carry an above-average attack rating of 1.532 — their 1.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Athletic Club's last 55 games and Las Palmas's last 17.
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 60% | Draw 26% | Las Palmas 14%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.67 | Draw 3.83 | Las Palmas 7.12. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (60%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Athletic Club 40% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 33% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 18 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 60% | Draw 26% | Las Palmas 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Athletic Club 1.85 / Las Palmas 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.532 / def 0.979 | Las Palmas attack 0.744 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Las Palmas xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Athletic Club vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Athletic Club vs Las Palmas kick off?
Athletic Club vs Las Palmas kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Las Palmas?
Athletic Club 1 - 0 Las Palmas.
Where is Athletic Club vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Las Palmas part of?
Athletic Club vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 18) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 60% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Athletic Club and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Athletic Club vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Athletic Club's attack rating (1.53) and Las Palmas's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Athletic Club's last 55 games and Las Palmas's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.83
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.67
0.82
Las Palmas xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
2%
45.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Athletic Club vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.82 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Las Palmas?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 9W 5D 3L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Las Palmas's form line: 7W 4D 6L from 17 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Las Palmas.
Venue Form
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 2.22 PPG from their last 9 home games (6W 2D 1L).
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 3W 1D 5L from their last 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Athletic Club are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.88 scored and 0.82 conceded. Athletic Club's scoring rate against Las Palmas's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
Athletic Club (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Athletic Club
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Athletic Club vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Athletic Club and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Las Palmas away?
Athletic Club's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 2.22 PPG; Las Palmas away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Las Palmas been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Las Palmas in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 23 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Athletic Club have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Las Palmas specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Athletic Club
0
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Athletic Club vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Las Palmas?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Athletic Club have won 4, Las Palmas have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 April 2025: Athletic Club 1-0 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Las Palmas?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 44%, Las Palmas 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Athletic Club) and 22% (Las Palmas).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Las Palmas in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Athletic Club vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Athletic Club and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 33% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Athletic Club and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 78% of Athletic Club's recent games and 22% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 56% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Athletic Club edge out Las Palmas 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Las Palmas 1-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.85 xG and Las Palmas 0.82 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Athletic Club fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Las Palmas landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.53 / defence 0.98 against Las Palmas attack 0.74 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 60% | Draw 26% | Las Palmas 14%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 53%, Las Palmas 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Las Palmas's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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