Mallorca 3-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Osasuna travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 December 2023, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's home record at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix: 3W 6D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Mallorca) versus 1.20 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mallorca, 2 for Osasuna and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mallorca trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 38% versus Osasuna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 29% | Osasuna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.16 xG and Osasuna 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.704 / defence 0.733 | Osasuna attack 1.034 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.109. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mallorca's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Mallorca games / 55 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 36% | Osasuna 24%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Osasuna 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 30% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 36% | Osasuna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Mallorca 1.16 / Osasuna 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.704 / def 0.733 | Osasuna attack 1.034 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Osasuna xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Osasuna kick off?
Mallorca vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:30 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Mallorca 3 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Mallorca vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Osasuna part of?
Mallorca vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 40% chance of winning, Osasuna a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mallorca and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Record (4 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in?
Mallorca (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.70) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
40%
2.47
36%
2.78
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.00
0.84
Osasuna xG
2.47
40%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.84 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 16W 17D 22L from 55 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 23L across 55 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.18 PPG, Osasuna on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 11W 11D 5L from 27 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Osasuna's away record stands at 7W 8D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.02 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 55 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 20W 12D 23L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Osasuna away?
Mallorca's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.63 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Osasuna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mallorca's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
5
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Osasuna have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 37%, Osasuna 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Mallorca and 37% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 30% of games; Osasuna in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Mallorca's recent matches and 48% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Mallorca's recent games and 37% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Osasuna tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Osasuna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Osasuna 3-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.16 xG and Osasuna 0.84 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.70 / defence 0.73 against Osasuna attack 1.03 / defence 1.19, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 40% | Draw 36% | Osasuna 24%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 29%, Osasuna 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.18 PPG, Osasuna 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.