Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Real Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Alaves welcome Real Madrid to Estadio de Mendizorroza. Kick-off is set for Thursday 21 December 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Alaves — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 4W 1D 3L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Madrid stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Real Madrid's 2.40 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Alaves's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Alaves, 2 for Real Madrid and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Real Madrid winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alaves trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Real Madrid trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 41% versus Real Madrid 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 29% | Real Madrid 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.83 xG and Real Madrid 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.802 / defence 1.165 | Real Madrid attack 1.337 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.109. Real Madrid's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Alaves games / 55 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 15% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 56%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | Real Madrid 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 38% | Real Madrid 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 15% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Alaves 0.83 / Real Madrid 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.802 / def 1.165 | Real Madrid attack 1.337 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Real Madrid xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Real Madrid kick off?
Alaves vs Real Madrid kicked off at 20:30 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Alaves 0 - 1 Real Madrid.
Where is Alaves vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Real Madrid part of?
Alaves vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 15% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 56% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Alaves and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Madrid?
Record (2 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 0 | Real Madrid 2W.
What form are Alaves and Real Madrid in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Real Madrid (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alaves's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
15%
6.49
28%
3.53
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.56
1.73
Real Madrid xG
6.49
15%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
3%
36.47
24%
4.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Alaves and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Alaves and 1.73 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alaves's recent record stands at 4W 4D 9L from 17 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 13W 3D 1L across 17 games — 2.47 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 4W 1D 3L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Real Madrid's away record stands at 5W 2D 1L across 8 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.24 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Real Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 13W 3D 1L in their last 17 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.62 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Alaves or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Real Madrid have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2024, when Real Madrid won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Alaves
0
Draws
8
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Madrid?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 0, Real Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 38%, Real Madrid 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Alaves) and 62% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Real Madrid in 38%; Alaves have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Alaves's recent matches and 62% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Alaves's recent games and 62% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.83 xG and Real Madrid 1.73 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Real Madrid attack 1.34 / defence 0.75, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 15% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 56%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 29%, Real Madrid 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Madrid's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.