Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rayo Vallecano face Valencia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valencia make the trip to Estadio de Vallecas to face Rayo Vallecano in La Liga (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Rayo Vallecano have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rayo Vallecano's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valencia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Valencia have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 1.00 for Valencia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Rayo Vallecano's last 10 home games and Valencia's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 70% of Valencia's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 0 for Valencia and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2023, ended Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Valencia — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rayo Vallecano — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Valencia — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 53% versus Valencia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 51% | Valencia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.49 xG and Valencia 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.876 / defence 1.133 | Valencia attack 0.944 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.091. Valencia's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rayo Vallecano's projected output up. Data: built from Rayo Vallecano's last 55 games and Valencia's last 55.
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 31% | Valencia 27%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.40 | Draw 3.18 | Valencia 3.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Rayo Vallecano's last 10 home games and Valencia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rayo Vallecano 70% (last 10 home games) | Valencia 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, matchday 18 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 31% | Valencia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.49 / Valencia 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.876 / def 1.133 | Valencia attack 0.944 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Valencia xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia FAQs
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Rayo Vallecano 0 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia is a La Liga fixture (matchday 18) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 42% chance of winning, Valencia a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Valencia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (0.88) and Valencia's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.94x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Rayo Vallecano's last 55 games and Valencia's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.18
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.65
1.17
Valencia xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
6%
16.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.17 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 18D 20L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.13 PPG from 55 outings (16W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 1.13 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rayo Vallecano's home form reads 10W 10D 7L across their last 27 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 27 away games (4W 7D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.09 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Valencia
Blended
Rayo Vallecano (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Form FAQs
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Valencia in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 17W 18D 20L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while Valencia have gone 16W 14D 25L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Valencia away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.48 PPG; Valencia away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 14 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
7
Draws
1
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Valencia have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Valencia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 May 2026: Valencia 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 67%, Valencia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Rayo Vallecano) and 52% (Valencia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 26% of games; Valencia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rayo Vallecano and Valencia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 59% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rayo Vallecano and Valencia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Rayo Vallecano's matches and 52% of Valencia's.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Valencia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 63% of Valencia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Rayo Vallecano 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Rayo Vallecano 0-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.49 xG and Valencia 1.17 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Valencia attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 31% | Valencia 27%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 51%, Valencia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valencia's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.25 PPG, Valencia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More La Liga fixtures — matchday 18
All La Liga fixtures →
More Spanish football predictions →