Granada CF 2-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Cadiz travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 January 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Granada CF — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada CF have gone 1W 4D 4L this season (9 games, 0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have recorded 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Cadiz have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Granada CF 0.30 PPG, Cadiz 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Granada CF register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant matches, Cadiz in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Granada CF, 0 for Cadiz and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Granada CF trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Cadiz trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 61% versus Cadiz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Granada CF 50% | Cadiz 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.25 xG and Cadiz 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.848 / defence 1.480 | Cadiz attack 0.847 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.121. Data: 18 Granada CF games / 56 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 31% | Draw 31% | Cadiz 38%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Cadiz 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 78% | Cadiz 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 31% | Draw 31% | Cadiz 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Granada CF 1.25 / Cadiz 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.848 / def 1.480 | Cadiz attack 0.847 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Cadiz xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Cadiz kick off?
Granada CF vs Cadiz kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 3 January 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Cadiz?
Granada CF 2 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Granada CF vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Cadiz part of?
Granada CF vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 31% chance of winning, Cadiz a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Granada CF and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Cadiz?
Record (2 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 2 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Granada CF and Cadiz in?
Granada CF (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Cadiz (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Cadiz's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
31%
3.22
31%
3.26
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.65
1.40
Cadiz xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
8%
13.12
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.40 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Granada CF's recent record stands at 1W 5D 12L from 18 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 2W 9D 7L across 18 games — 0.83 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Granada CF on 0.44 PPG, Cadiz on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Granada CF have managed 1W 4D 4L from 9 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 0W 4D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Granada CF are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.78 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 1W 5D 12L in their last 18 games (0.44 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 2W 9D 7L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Cadiz away?
Granada CF's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.78 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Granada CF and Cadiz runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Granada CF's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Granada CF
2
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Cadiz?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 1, Cadiz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when Cadiz 1-0 Granada CF.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Granada CF at 78%, Cadiz at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Granada CF) and 22% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Granada CF's games and 56% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Granada CF's recent games and 22% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Cadiz tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Granada CF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF beat Cadiz 2-0 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.25 xG and Cadiz 1.40 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.85 / defence 1.48 against Cadiz attack 0.85 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 31% | Draw 31% | Cadiz 38%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Granada CF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 50%, Cadiz 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 0.44 PPG, Cadiz 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Granada CF win broke the near-deadlock. Granada CF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.