Atletico Madrid 3-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Madrid at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Madrid vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Madrid host Girona at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Madrid have posted 8W 1D 1L at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Atletico Madrid are significantly better at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Girona's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Atletico Madrid) versus 1.60 (Girona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 2, Girona 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2024, ended 3–4 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Madrid in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Girona in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 52% versus Girona 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 54% | Girona 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 1.88 xG and Girona 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.327 / defence 1.022 | Girona attack 1.018 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.090. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 68 Atletico Madrid games / 68 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 54% | Draw 23% | Girona 22%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Girona 4.55. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Madrid 50% | Girona 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 54% | Draw 23% | Girona 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Atletico Madrid 1.88 / Girona 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.327 / def 1.022 | Girona attack 1.018 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Girona xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Girona kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Girona kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Atletico Madrid 3 - 1 Girona.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Girona part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Girona is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 54% chance of winning, Girona a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Girona?
Record (3 meetings): Atletico Madrid 2W | Draws 0 | Girona 1W.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Girona in?
Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Girona (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.30
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
3.01
1.14
Girona xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
3%
29.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.14 for Girona, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Atletico Madrid have picked up 1.99 PPG on a 41W 12D 15L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 33W 15D 20L from 68 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Madrid on 1.99 PPG, Girona on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atletico Madrid have posted 2.41 PPG from 34 outings (26W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.99 PPG overall — Atletico Madrid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Girona have gone 11W 10D 13L from 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.76 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 63%.
Last 68 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Madrid and Girona in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 41W 12D 15L in their last 68 games (1.99 PPG), while Girona have gone 33W 15D 20L in their last 68 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Girona away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.41 PPG; Girona away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Girona in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Madrid and Girona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Madrid go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Atletico Madrid won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Girona specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Atletico Madrid
0
Draws
1
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 7, Girona have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atletico Madrid 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Girona?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 62%, Girona 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Atletico Madrid and 53% for Girona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Madrid play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Atletico Madrid's games and 65% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Madrid vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Atletico Madrid's matches and 53% of Girona's.
Do Atletico Madrid and Girona tend to score early?
Atletico Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Girona in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Girona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Girona 3-1 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.88 xG and Girona 1.14 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atletico Madrid beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.33 / defence 1.02 against Girona attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 54% | Draw 23% | Girona 22%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 54%, Girona 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Girona's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Madrid 1.99 PPG, Girona 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Madrid win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.