Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 42%, yet in-form Getafe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Vallecas plays host to Rayo Vallecano versus Getafe in La Liga (matchday 31). Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:15 UK time.
Form
Rayo Vallecano (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Rayo Vallecano have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Getafe have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Getafe have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Getafe are 0.50 PPG clear of Rayo Vallecano over their recent games (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Rayo Vallecano edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Jan 2024, ended Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Getafe — a Rayo Vallecano win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Getafe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 50% versus Getafe 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 47% | Getafe 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.37 xG and Getafe 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.856 / defence 1.047 | Getafe attack 0.981 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.089. Data: built from Rayo Vallecano's last 68 games and Getafe's last 68.
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 28% | Getafe 30%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.37 | Draw 3.61 | Getafe 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Getafe (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rayo Vallecano 60% (last 10 home games) | Getafe 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, matchday 31 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 28% | Getafe 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.37 / Getafe 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.856 / def 1.047 | Getafe attack 0.981 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Getafe xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe FAQs
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe?
Rayo Vallecano 0 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe is a La Liga fixture (matchday 31) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 42% chance of winning, Getafe a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Getafe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (0.86) and Getafe's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.98x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Rayo Vallecano's last 68 games and Getafe's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.61
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.49
1.12
Getafe xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.12 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 68 games, going 19W 22D 27L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Getafe sit at 1.18 PPG from 68 outings (19W 23D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 1.18 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rayo Vallecano's home form reads 11W 12D 10L across their last 33 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Getafe have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 33 away games (4W 13D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Getafe's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.04 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
Rayo Vallecano (Home) vs Getafe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe Form FAQs
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Getafe in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 19W 22D 27L in their last 68 games (1.16 PPG), while Getafe have gone 19W 23D 26L in their last 68 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Getafe away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.36 PPG; Getafe away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Getafe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 1W 3D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rayo Vallecano
7
Draws
0
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Getafe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, Getafe have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Getafe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Getafe 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Getafe?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 64%, Getafe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rayo Vallecano) and 42% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 27% of games; Getafe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rayo Vallecano and Getafe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 48% of Getafe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rayo Vallecano and Getafe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 42% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Getafe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 76% of Getafe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rayo Vallecano's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 31, as Rayo Vallecano and Getafe drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.37 xG and Getafe 1.12 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Getafe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Getafe attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 28% | Getafe 30%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 47%, Getafe 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Getafe's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.16 PPG, Getafe 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More La Liga fixtures — matchday 31
All La Liga fixtures →
More Spanish football predictions →