Girona 3-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Girona and Real Betis meet at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Girona have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Real Betis's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Real Betis's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Girona, 2 for Real Betis and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Real Betis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 63% versus Real Betis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 58% | Real Betis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.01 xG and Real Betis 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.501 / defence 0.868 | Real Betis attack 0.860 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.088. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.501 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Girona games / 67 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 65% | Draw 22% | Real Betis 14%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Real Betis 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Girona (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Girona 50% | Real Betis 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 65% | Draw 22% | Real Betis 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG Girona 2.01 / Real Betis 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.501 / def 0.868 | Real Betis attack 0.860 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Girona (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Real Betis xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Real Betis kick off?
Girona vs Real Betis kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Real Betis?
Girona 3 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Girona vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Real Betis part of?
Girona vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 65% chance of winning, Real Betis a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Girona and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Betis?
Record (3 meetings): Girona 0W | Draws 1 | Real Betis 2W.
What form are Girona and Real Betis in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Real Betis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.50) and Real Betis's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (0.86x) against Girona's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
65%
1.54
22%
4.61
14%
7.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Girona xG
Total xG
2.82
0.81
Real Betis xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
7.35
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
13%
7.47
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
54.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Girona and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Girona and 0.81 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Real Betis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Girona have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 32W 15D 20L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Real Betis's form line: 27W 21D 19L from 67 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Girona against 1.52 for Real Betis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Girona have posted 2.06 PPG from 33 outings (21W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Girona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Real Betis have gone 11W 10D 12L from 33 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.19 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Real Betis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 32W 15D 20L in their last 67 games (1.66 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 27W 21D 19L in their last 67 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Real Betis away?
Girona's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.06 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Girona or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Real Betis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Girona
3
Draws
4
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Betis?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 1, Real Betis have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Girona 2-3 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 61%, Real Betis 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Girona) and 42% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Real Betis in 30%; Real Betis in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Girona's recent matches and 48% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Girona's recent games and 42% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Real Betis tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Real Betis 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Real Betis 3-2 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.01 xG and Real Betis 0.81 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Betis outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.50 / defence 0.87 against Real Betis attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 65% | Draw 22% | Real Betis 14%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 58%, Real Betis 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Real Betis's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.66 PPG, Real Betis 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.