Las Palmas 0-2 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Las Palmas vs Sevilla encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Gran Canaria plays host to Las Palmas versus Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Las Palmas have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Las Palmas at Estadio de Gran Canaria this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sevilla arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Las Palmas 0W, Sevilla 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Sevilla winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sevilla — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 40% versus Sevilla 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 30% | Sevilla 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.03 xG and Sevilla 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.804 / defence 1.033 | Sevilla attack 0.984 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.072. Data: 30 Las Palmas games / 68 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 33% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 36%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Sevilla 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sevilla are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 50% | Sevilla 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 33% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Las Palmas 1.03 / Sevilla 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.804 / def 1.033 | Sevilla attack 0.984 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sevilla xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Sevilla kick off?
Las Palmas vs Sevilla kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Sevilla?
Las Palmas 0 - 2 Sevilla.
Where is Las Palmas vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Sevilla part of?
Las Palmas vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 33% chance of winning, Sevilla a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Las Palmas and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Sevilla?
Record (1 meetings): Las Palmas 0W | Draws 0 | Sevilla 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Sevilla in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Sevilla (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Las Palmas's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.98x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.30
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.12
1.09
Sevilla xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.09 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 10W 7D 13L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Sevilla's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Las Palmas against 1.03 for Sevilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
On the road, Sevilla have gone 3W 5D 7L from 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Las Palmas are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.23 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla in 60%.
Last 30 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Current Season
Sevilla
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Sevilla away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.47 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
1
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Sevilla?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 0, Sevilla have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Sevilla 1-0 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 47%, Sevilla 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Las Palmas) and 47% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Las Palmas have failed to score in 27% of games; Sevilla in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 47% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Las Palmas's recent games and 47% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Sevilla tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Las Palmas.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Las Palmas 0-2 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.03 xG and Sevilla 1.09 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Las Palmas fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sevilla outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.80 / defence 1.03 against Sevilla attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 33% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 36%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 30%, Sevilla 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.23 PPG, Sevilla 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.