Osasuna 0-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Valencia travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 April 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Valencia away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.40 PPG, Valencia 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Osasuna, 3 for Valencia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Osasuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valencia trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 44% versus Valencia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 38% | Valencia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.29 xG and Valencia 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.984 / defence 1.211 | Valencia attack 0.869 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.077. Data: 68 Osasuna games / 68 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 40% | Draw 28% | Valencia 32%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Valencia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Valencia 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Monday 15 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 40% | Draw 28% | Valencia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Osasuna 1.29 / Valencia 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.984 / def 1.211 | Valencia attack 0.869 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Valencia xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Valencia kick off?
Osasuna vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 15 April 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Valencia?
Osasuna 0 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Osasuna vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Valencia part of?
Osasuna vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 40% chance of winning, Valencia a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Osasuna and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valencia?
Record (5 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 0 | Valencia 3W.
What form are Osasuna and Valencia in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Valencia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.98) and Valencia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.54
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.43
1.13
Valencia xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.13 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna come into this having played 68 games, going 26W 14D 28L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.26 PPG from 68 outings (23W 17D 28L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.35 PPG, Valencia on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Osasuna's home form reads 17W 4D 13L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.82 points per game from 34 outings (7W 7D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.10 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 68 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Valencia in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 26W 14D 28L in their last 68 games (1.35 PPG), while Valencia have gone 23W 17D 28L in their last 68 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Valencia away?
Osasuna's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.62 PPG; Valencia away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Valencia in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Valencia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
2
Draws
5
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Valencia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Valencia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 41%, Valencia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Osasuna) and 44% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 29% of games; Valencia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Osasuna's recent matches and 50% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Osasuna's recent games and 44% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Osasuna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Osasuna 0-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.29 xG and Valencia 1.13 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against Valencia attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 40% | Draw 28% | Valencia 32%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 38%, Valencia 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valencia's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.35 PPG, Valencia 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.