Cadiz 0-1 Barcelona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Barcelona (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cadiz face Barcelona.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cadiz host Barcelona at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Cadiz have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Barcelona — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Barcelona away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Barcelona — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Cadiz have won 1, Barcelona 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Barcelona winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Barcelona in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 37% versus Barcelona 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 26% | Barcelona 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.85 xG and Barcelona 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.801 / defence 1.015 | Barcelona attack 1.460 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.077. Barcelona's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Barcelona have an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Cadiz games / 68 Barcelona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 20% | Draw 26% | Barcelona 54%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Barcelona 1.85. Barcelona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Barcelona are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Barcelona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cadiz 40% | Barcelona 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Barcelona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 20% | Draw 26% | Barcelona 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Cadiz 0.85 / Barcelona 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.801 / def 1.015 | Barcelona attack 1.460 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Barcelona (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Barcelona xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Barcelona kick off?
Cadiz vs Barcelona kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Cadiz 0 - 1 Barcelona.
Where is Cadiz vs Barcelona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Barcelona part of?
Cadiz vs Barcelona is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 20% chance of winning, Barcelona a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Barcelona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cadiz and Barcelona will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Barcelona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Barcelona?
Record (5 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 1 | Barcelona 3W.
What form are Cadiz and Barcelona in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Barcelona (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Barcelona's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Barcelona's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
20%
5.12
26%
3.85
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.45
1.60
Barcelona xG
5.12
20%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
4%
25.25
23%
4.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Barcelona expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.60 for Barcelona, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cadiz come into this having played 68 games, going 14W 25D 29L for 0.99 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Barcelona sit at 2.28 PPG from 68 outings (48W 11D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Barcelona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cadiz's home form reads 11W 13D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Barcelona have taken 2.12 points per game from 33 outings (21W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barcelona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cadiz are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Barcelona are on 1.93 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Barcelona in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Barcelona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Barcelona in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 14W 25D 29L in their last 68 games (0.99 PPG), while Barcelona have gone 48W 11D 9L in their last 68 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Barcelona away?
Barcelona's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.39 PPG; Barcelona away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Barcelona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Barcelona in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cadiz and Barcelona runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Barcelona go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Barcelona won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Barcelona specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
1
Draws
4
Barcelona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Barcelona?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Barcelona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Barcelona last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Cadiz 0-1 Barcelona.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Barcelona?
Barcelona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Barcelona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 36%, Barcelona 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cadiz) and 61% (Barcelona).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Barcelona in 42%; Cadiz have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Barcelona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Barcelona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cadiz's recent matches and 54% of Barcelona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Barcelona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cadiz's recent games and 61% of Barcelona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Barcelona tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Barcelona in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Barcelona edge out Cadiz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barcelona beat Cadiz 0-1 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.85 xG and Barcelona 1.60 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cadiz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Barcelona attack 1.46 / defence 0.79, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 20% | Draw 26% | Barcelona 54%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 26%, Barcelona 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Barcelona's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.99. Form held, and they took the win. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Barcelona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.