Alaves 2-2 Girona – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Alaves at 35%, yet in-form Girona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alaves vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Alaves host Girona at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Alaves have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Alaves have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Girona away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Girona — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Alaves's games and 70% of Girona's (from Alaves's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Alaves, 3 for Girona and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Alaves 0–1 Girona — a Girona win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Alaves in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Girona in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 50% versus Girona 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 39% | Girona 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.11 xG and Girona 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.784 / defence 1.005 | Girona attack 0.934 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.128. Alaves's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Alaves's last 62 games and Girona's last 62.

Result probabilities: Alaves 35% | Draw 32% | Girona 33%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.84 | Draw 3.13 | Girona 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Alaves 60% (last 10 home games) | Girona 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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