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Poisson model rates Alaves at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Alaves travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026, 20:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levante's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 0.90 PPG, Alaves 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Levante have won 1, Alaves 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Alaves winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Levante trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Alaves trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 48% versus Alaves 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 48% | Alaves 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.89 xG and Alaves 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.603 / defence 1.268 | Alaves attack 0.807 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.135. Levante's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Levante games / 63 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Alaves 41%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Alaves 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Levante 50% | Alaves 50%.

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