Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 72% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Suwon City FC in K League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Suwon City FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Jeonbuk Motors's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Jeonbuk Motors 3–1 Suwon City FC — a Jeonbuk Motors win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 50% versus Suwon City FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Suwon City FC 65%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Jeonbuk Motors recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 2.55 xG and Suwon City FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.102 / defence 0.728 | Suwon City FC attack 1.021 / defence 1.728. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.206. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.728 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output up. Jeonbuk Motors have a tight defence (rating 0.728), which is pulling Suwon City FC's projected output down. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 55 games and Suwon City FC's last 55.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 72% | Draw 19% | Suwon City FC 10%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 1.40 | Draw 5.33 | Suwon City FC 10.44. The model has a clear lean to Jeonbuk Motors (72%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jeonbuk Motors's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 40% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 72% | Draw 19% | Suwon City FC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Jeonbuk Motors 2.55 / Suwon City FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.102 / def 0.728 | Suwon City FC attack 1.021 / def 1.728 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Suwon City FC xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 72% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.10x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.73x — combine the two and it projects 2.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.02x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 55 games and Suwon City FC's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
72%
1.40
19%
5.33
10%
10.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
3.45
0.90
Suwon City FC xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
10.44
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
8%
12.81
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
1%
133.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.90 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 31W 14D 15L from 60 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 28L across 60 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 14W 9D 5L from their last 28 home games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 5W 7D 16L across their last 28 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 62%.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 31W 14D 15L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 18W 14D 28L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.82 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 18 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won Suwon City FC 0-6 Jeonbuk Motors on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 57%, Suwon City FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 57% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 54% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 57% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 68% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 2.55 xG and Suwon City FC 0.90 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeonbuk Motors fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.10 / defence 0.73 against Suwon City FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.73, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 72% | Draw 19% | Suwon City FC 10%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 42%, Suwon City FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.