Suwon Bluewings 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon Bluewings face Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon World Cup Stadium plays host to Suwon Bluewings versus Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 15 July 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 games at Suwon World Cup Stadium this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Ulsan Hyundai FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
It is worth noting that Ulsan Hyundai FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 57% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.71 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.705 / defence 1.189 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.198 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.219. Suwon Bluewings's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Suwon Bluewings games / 55 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 13% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 7.69 | Draw 3.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Suwon Bluewings 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jul 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 13% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.71 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.705 / def 1.189 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.198 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 July 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Suwon Bluewings 3 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 13% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 60% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (9 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 2W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 5W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 0.70x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.20x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
13%
7.73
27%
3.69
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.45
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
7.73
13%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
18%
5.68
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
2%
43.90
29%
3.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.74 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 18D 29L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 2.15 PPG from 60 outings (39W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 6W 10D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 2.10 points per game from 30 outings (19W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.72 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 62%.
Last 60 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 13W 18D 29L in their last 60 games (0.95 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 39W 12D 9L in their last 60 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 0.93 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon Bluewings won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 July 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 53%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Suwon Bluewings) and 47% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%; Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon Bluewings cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.71 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.70 / defence 1.19 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.77, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 13% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Suwon Bluewings win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Suwon Bluewings winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.