Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gwangju FC at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Suwon City FC welcome Gwangju FC to Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 22 July 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gwangju FC — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Gwangju FC's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Suwon City FC have won 0, Gwangju FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2023, ended Suwon City FC 0–2 Gwangju FC — a Gwangju FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon City FC trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gwangju FC trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 36% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 61% versus Gwangju FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 65% | Gwangju FC 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.34 xG and Gwangju FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.990 / defence 1.432 | Gwangju FC attack 0.835 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.184. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.432 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gwangju FC's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 56 games and Gwangju FC's last 23.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.98 | Draw 3.39 | Gwangju FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Gwangju FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Gwangju FC 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 22 July 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Suwon City FC 1.34 / Gwangju FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.990 / def 1.432 | Gwangju FC attack 0.835 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Gwangju FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC FAQs
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Suwon City FC 0 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 34% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (0.99) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Suwon City FC's last 56 games and Gwangju FC's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
34%
2.98
29%
3.39
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.42
Gwangju FC xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.42 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 5D 13L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Gwangju FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Suwon City FC's home form reads 4W 3D 4L across their last 11 home games, a 1.36 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Suwon City FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 11 away games (3W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
Suwon City FC (Home) vs Gwangju FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon City FC
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC Form FAQs
What form are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 games (0.87 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 8W 7D 8L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 30 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Gwangju FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gwangju FC have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 November 2025: Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 54%, Gwangju FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Suwon City FC) and 27% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Gwangju FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 54% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 27% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 36% of Gwangju FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gwangju FC edge out Suwon City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Suwon City FC 0-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.34 xG and Gwangju FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.43 against Gwangju FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 37%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 65%, Gwangju FC 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.