Incheon United 2-0 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 34%, yet in-form Incheon United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Incheon United host Daejeon Citizen at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 16 July 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Incheon United have gone 3W 6D 1L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Incheon United at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Daejeon Citizen — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Daejeon Citizen away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Incheon United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Incheon United have won 1, Daejeon Citizen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended Incheon United 3–1 Daejeon Citizen — a Incheon United win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Incheon United trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Daejeon Citizen trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 46% versus Daejeon Citizen 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Daejeon Citizen 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Incheon United surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Daejeon Citizen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.06 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.711 / defence 0.839 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.094 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.205. Incheon United's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Incheon United's last 55 games and Daejeon Citizen's last 22.
Result probabilities: Incheon United 32% | Draw 34% | Daejeon Citizen 34%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.14 | Draw 2.94 | Daejeon Citizen 2.92. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Incheon United 30% (last 10 home games) | Daejeon Citizen 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 32% | Draw 34% | Daejeon Citizen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Incheon United 1.06 / Daejeon Citizen 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.711 / def 0.839 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.094 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Daejeon Citizen xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen FAQs
What time does Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Incheon United 2 - 0 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 32% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 0.71x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Incheon United's last 55 games and Daejeon Citizen's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
32%
3.14
34%
2.94
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.17
1.11
Daejeon Citizen xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.11 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Incheon United come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 10D 8L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Daejeon Citizen sit at 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (9W 9D 6L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.17 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Incheon United's home form reads 2W 7D 3L across their last 12 home games, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Daejeon Citizen have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 12 away games (4W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Incheon United are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.67 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 67%.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
Incheon United (Home) vs Daejeon Citizen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Incheon United
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen Form FAQs
What form are Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 6W 10D 8L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 9W 9D 6L in their last 24 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Daejeon Citizen's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.08 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from June 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Incheon United's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Incheon United
2
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Incheon United have won 4, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Daejeon Citizen 2-0 Incheon United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 42%, Daejeon Citizen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Incheon United) and 67% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Incheon United's recent matches and 67% of Daejeon Citizen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Incheon United's recent games and 67% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Incheon United's recent matches and 50% of Daejeon Citizen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Incheon United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daejeon Citizen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Daejeon Citizen 2-0 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.06 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.11 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daejeon Citizen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.71 / defence 0.84 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 32% | Draw 34% | Daejeon Citizen 34%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Incheon United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Daejeon Citizen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.17 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.