FC Seoul 7-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Seoul at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Seoul World Cup Stadium to face FC Seoul in K League 1 (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Seoul have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FC Seoul have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Seoul are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Suwon City FC away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in FC Seoul's favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FC Seoul's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) — FC Seoul have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Suwon City FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 58% versus Suwon City FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 44% | Suwon City FC 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Seoul surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Suwon City FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while FC Seoul recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.92 xG and Suwon City FC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.064 / defence 0.786 | Suwon City FC attack 0.935 / defence 1.449. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.201. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.449 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Seoul's projected output up. FC Seoul have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Suwon City FC's projected output down. Data: built from FC Seoul's last 54 games and Suwon City FC's last 54.
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 60% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 1.67 | Draw 4.03 | Suwon City FC 6.61. The model has a clear lean to FC Seoul (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Seoul's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Seoul 70% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 60% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG FC Seoul 1.92 / Suwon City FC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.064 / def 0.786 | Suwon City FC attack 0.935 / def 1.449 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Suwon City FC xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Wednesday 12 July 2023 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul 7 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 22) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 60% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Seoul and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (1.06) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.94x) against FC Seoul's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from FC Seoul's last 54 games and Suwon City FC's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
60%
1.67
25%
4.03
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.80
0.88
Suwon City FC xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
2%
44.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.88 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, FC Seoul have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 20W 19D 20L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 18W 14D 27L from 59 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for FC Seoul against 1.15 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Seoul have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 27 home games (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 5W 7D 15L from their last 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Seoul come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Seoul are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.36 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
FC Seoul (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Seoul
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 20W 19D 20L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 18W 14D 27L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Suwon City FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.52 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won FC Seoul 7-2 Suwon City FC on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Seoul
4
Draws
0
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Seoul have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 59%, Suwon City FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Seoul) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Seoul and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Seoul's games and 52% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Seoul's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 67% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Seoul run riot with a 7-2 hammering of Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 7-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.92 xG and Suwon City FC 0.88 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 7-2 for 9 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 5.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.06 / defence 0.79 against Suwon City FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.45, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 60% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 15%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 44%, Suwon City FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (59 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (59 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.34 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 7 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.