Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors meet at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Daejeon Citizen have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Daejeon Citizen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Jeonbuk Motors are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 65% versus Jeonbuk Motors 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 65% | Jeonbuk Motors 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.04 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.929 / defence 1.260 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.875 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.201. Daejeon Citizen's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output up. Data: built from Daejeon Citizen's last 21 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 54.
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 27% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 3.66 | Draw 3.17 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daejeon Citizen 60% (last 10 home games) | Jeonbuk Motors 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 27% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.04 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.929 / def 1.260 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.875 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Jeonbuk Motors xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors FAQs
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Wednesday 12 July 2023 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daejeon Citizen 2 - 2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 22) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 27% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.93) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (0.88x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Daejeon Citizen's last 21 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
27%
3.66
32%
3.17
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.37
1.32
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
7%
13.76
15%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.32 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daejeon Citizen come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 8D 6L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 1.70 for Jeonbuk Motors. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Daejeon Citizen's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across their last 11 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 11 away games (4W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jeonbuk Motors's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.30 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Daejeon Citizen (Home) vs Jeonbuk Motors (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors Form FAQs
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 9W 8D 6L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 12W 3D 8L in their last 23 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.64 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Daejeon Citizen or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Daejeon Citizen
4
Draws
4
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daejeon Citizen have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 64%, Jeonbuk Motors 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Daejeon Citizen) and 36% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 27% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 36% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 36% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 73% of Jeonbuk Motors's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.04 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.32 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.93 / defence 1.26 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 21/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 27% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 65%, Jeonbuk Motors 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.52 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.