Jeju United FC 3-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jeju United FC face Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jeju United FC welcome Suwon City FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 12 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jeju United FC have gone 0W 4D 6L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jeju United FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Suwon City FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jeju United FC at 0.40 PPG versus Suwon City FC's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Jeju United FC's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Jeju United FC have won 1, Suwon City FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Jeju United FC 5–0 Suwon City FC — a Jeju United FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jeju United FC trading profile (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 60% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 59% | Suwon City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.77 xG and Suwon City FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.910 / defence 1.084 | Suwon City FC attack 1.030 / defence 1.468. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.138. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.468 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jeju United FC's projected output up. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 58 games and Suwon City FC's last 58.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.09 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 3.83. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jeju United FC's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Jeju United FC 1.77 / Suwon City FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.910 / def 1.084 | Suwon City FC attack 1.030 / def 1.468 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Suwon City FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC 3 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 48% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeju United FC's last 58 games and Suwon City FC's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.85
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.27
Suwon City FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
4%
22.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.27 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 22W 17D 24L from 63 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 30L across 63 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.32 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 8W 12D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 6W 7D 17L across their last 30 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
Jeju United FC (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeju United FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 22W 17D 24L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 19W 14D 30L in their last 63 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.20 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 25 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won Suwon City FC 0-5 Jeju United FC.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeju United FC have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2025: Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 63%, Suwon City FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jeju United FC) and 53% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jeju United FC's games and 50% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jeju United FC's matches and 53% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 70% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jeju United FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Suwon City FC 3-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.77 xG and Suwon City FC 1.27 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Suwon City FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.47, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 26%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 59%, Suwon City FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.32 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.