Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jeonbuk Motors (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Jeonbuk Motors face Suwon Bluewings.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Suwon Bluewings at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 12 August 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Jeonbuk Motors's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Suwon Bluewings stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon Bluewings's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Jeonbuk Motors have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Jeonbuk Motors hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 7 wins compared to 1 for Suwon Bluewings and 1 draw.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2023, ended Jeonbuk Motors 3–0 Suwon Bluewings — a Jeonbuk Motors win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Jeonbuk Motors and goals — 7 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 49% versus Suwon Bluewings 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Suwon Bluewings 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jeonbuk Motors surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Suwon Bluewings have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.51 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.081 / defence 0.653 | Suwon Bluewings attack 1.052 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.151. Jeonbuk Motors have a tight defence (rating 0.653), which is pulling Suwon Bluewings's projected output down. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 58 games and Suwon Bluewings's last 58.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 53% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 18%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 1.89 | Draw 3.48 | Suwon Bluewings 5.46. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 30% (last 10 home games) | Suwon Bluewings 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 53% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.51 / Suwon Bluewings 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.081 / def 0.653 | Suwon Bluewings attack 1.052 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Suwon Bluewings xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings FAQs
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 53% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jeonbuk Motors's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 58 games and Suwon Bluewings's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.48
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.30
0.79
Suwon Bluewings xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
4%
24.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.79 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Jeonbuk Motors have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 33W 14D 16L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 15W 18D 30L from 63 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon Bluewings.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 9D 5L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 8W 8D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.11 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors (Home) vs Suwon Bluewings (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings Form FAQs
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 33W 14D 16L in their last 63 games (1.79 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 15W 18D 30L in their last 63 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.90 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2021. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 12 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Oct 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won Suwon Bluewings 0-4 Jeonbuk Motors.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
2
Draws
1
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 August 2023: Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 53%, Suwon Bluewings 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 57% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 63% of Suwon Bluewings's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 57% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 77% of Suwon Bluewings's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.51 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.79 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.08 / defence 0.65 against Suwon Bluewings attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 53% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 18%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 41%, Suwon Bluewings 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.