Daejeon Citizen 4-3 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Daejeon Citizen face FC Seoul.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to face Daejeon Citizen in K League 1 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daejeon Citizen at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Seoul's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Daejeon Citizen's last 10 home games and FC Seoul's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 70% of FC Seoul's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Daejeon Citizen half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Seoul half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daejeon Citizen 59% and FC Seoul 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 63% | FC Seoul 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Daejeon Citizen surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while FC Seoul have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.28 xG and FC Seoul 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.942 / defence 1.228 | FC Seoul attack 1.085 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.123. Daejeon Citizen's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Seoul's projected output up. Data: built from Daejeon Citizen's last 25 games and FC Seoul's last 58.
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 31% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 41%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 3.21 | Draw 3.54 | FC Seoul 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Daejeon Citizen's last 10 home games and FC Seoul's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daejeon Citizen 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Seoul 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 31% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.28 / FC Seoul 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.942 / def 1.228 | FC Seoul attack 1.085 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FC Seoul xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul FAQs
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul?
Daejeon Citizen 4 - 3 FC Seoul.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 31% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and FC Seoul will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Daejeon Citizen's attack at 0.94x the league average against FC Seoul's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (1.08x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from Daejeon Citizen's last 25 games and FC Seoul's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.54
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.78
1.50
FC Seoul xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.33
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.50 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Daejeon Citizen have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 10W 9D 8L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
FC Seoul's form line: 11W 8D 8L from 27 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 1.52 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Daejeon Citizen have posted 1.69 PPG from their last 13 home games (6W 4D 3L).
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 5W 3D 5L from their last 13 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.67 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Seoul in 63%.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
FC Seoul
Blended
Daejeon Citizen (Home) vs FC Seoul (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
FC Seoul
Blended
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul Form FAQs
What form are Daejeon Citizen and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 games (1.44 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 11W 8D 8L in their last 27 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or FC Seoul away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.69 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Daejeon Citizen and FC Seoul, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Seoul have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and FC Seoul?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, FC Seoul have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and FC Seoul last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: FC Seoul 4-2 Daejeon Citizen.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 62%, FC Seoul 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Daejeon Citizen) and 46% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daejeon Citizen and FC Seoul matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 62% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Daejeon Citizen and FC Seoul matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 46% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and FC Seoul matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 69% of FC Seoul's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat FC Seoul 4-3 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.28 xG and FC Seoul 1.50 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Seoul outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against FC Seoul attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 25/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 31% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 41%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 63%, FC Seoul 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC Seoul's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.44 PPG, FC Seoul 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.