Suwon Bluewings 0-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Suwon City FC travel to Suwon World Cup Stadium to take on Suwon Bluewings in K League 1 (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Suwon Bluewings have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Suwon Bluewings at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Suwon Bluewings carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 70% of Suwon City FC's (from Suwon Bluewings's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Suwon City FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Suwon Bluewings.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Jun 2023, ended Suwon Bluewings 1–2 Suwon City FC — a Suwon City FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Suwon City FC have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (last 62 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Suwon City FC trading profile (last 62 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 58% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 52% | Suwon City FC 63%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Suwon Bluewings recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.82 xG and Suwon City FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.854 / defence 1.156 | Suwon City FC attack 0.967 / defence 1.579. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.168. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.579 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Suwon Bluewings's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon Bluewings's last 57 games and Suwon City FC's last 57.
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 49% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.04 | Draw 4.15 | Suwon City FC 3.71. Suwon Bluewings hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Suwon Bluewings's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon Bluewings 60% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 49% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.82 / Suwon City FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.854 / def 1.156 | Suwon City FC attack 0.967 / def 1.579 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Suwon City FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 49% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.85) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Suwon Bluewings's last 57 games and Suwon City FC's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.15
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
3.12
1.30
Suwon City FC xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
4%
22.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.30 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 15W 18D 29L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 18W 14D 30L from 62 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.02 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Suwon Bluewings have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 29 home games (7W 8D 14L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 5W 7D 17L from their last 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 15W 18D 29L in their last 62 games (1.02 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 18W 14D 30L in their last 62 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Suwon City FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.00 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Aug 2021, when Suwon City FC won Suwon Bluewings 0-3 Suwon City FC.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
0
Draws
7
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 November 2023: Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 52%, Suwon City FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Suwon Bluewings) and 55% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 38% of games; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 52% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 55% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 69% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Suwon Bluewings 0-2 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.82 xG and Suwon City FC 1.30 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Suwon City FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.58, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 49% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 27%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 52%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.02 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.