Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jeju United FC face Gangwon FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jeju United FC welcome Gangwon FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 6 August 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jeju United FC at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gangwon FC stand at 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jeju United FC 0.60 PPG, Gangwon FC 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 60% versus Gangwon FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 60% | Gangwon FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.00 xG and Gangwon FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.910 / defence 1.070 | Gangwon FC attack 0.679 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.150. Gangwon FC's attack rating of 0.679 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 57 games and Gangwon FC's last 57.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.68 | Draw 2.88 | Gangwon FC 3.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jeju United FC's last 10 home games and Gangwon FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Gangwon FC 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Jeju United FC 1.00 / Gangwon FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.910 / def 1.070 | Gangwon FC attack 0.679 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Gangwon FC xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC FAQs
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 37% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.91) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeju United FC's last 57 games and Gangwon FC's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
37%
2.68
35%
2.88
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.84
0.83
Gangwon FC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.83 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 16D 24L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.05 PPG from 62 outings (16W 17D 29L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.32 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeju United FC's home form reads 8W 11D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 8D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.05 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
Jeju United FC (Home) vs Gangwon FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeju United FC
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 16W 17D 29L in their last 62 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.17 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won Gangwon FC 4-0 Jeju United FC.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jeju United FC
6
Draws
3
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeju United FC have won 1, Gangwon FC have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Gangwon FC 0-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 60%, Gangwon FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jeju United FC) and 40% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Gangwon FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 47% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 40% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 63% of Gangwon FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC finished level at 1-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.00 xG and Gangwon FC 0.83 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Gangwon FC attack 0.68 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 28%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 60%, Gangwon FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.32 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.