NEOM 1-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates NEOM at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NEOM face Al-Hazm.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

King Khalid Sports City plays host to NEOM versus Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

NEOM have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, NEOM have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Al-Hazm's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for NEOM against 1.60 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, NEOM edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Jan 2026, ended NEOM 2–1 Al-Hazm — a NEOM win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

NEOM half-time and goal-timing data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEOM 62% and Al-Hazm 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 55% | Al-Hazm 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: NEOM surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Al-Hazm have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.33 xG and Al-Hazm 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.776 / defence 1.054 | Al-Hazm attack 0.688 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.382. NEOM's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from NEOM's last 29 games and Al-Hazm's last 29.

Result probabilities: NEOM 44% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 28%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 2.27 | Draw 3.61 | Al-Hazm 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates NEOM as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEOM if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: NEOM 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights