Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Al-Hazm's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (30 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 63% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.24 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.947 / defence 1.153 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.437 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.407. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.437 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Al-Hazm games / 63 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 5.26 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 80% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Hazm 1.24 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.947 / def 1.153 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.437 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hazm 0 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 19% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
19%
5.24
19%
5.17
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.57
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.24
19%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
10%
10.29
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
2%
53.92
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.33 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 10W 8D 12L from 30 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 0L across 30 games — 2.47 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 7W 1D 5L from 13 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Al-Hazm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 9W 4D 0L across 13 trips, a 2.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.60 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 22W 8D 0L in their last 30 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.69 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hazm at 77%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Al-Hazm and 62% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Al-Hazm's games and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Al-Hazm's matches and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Hazm 0-3 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.24 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 60%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (30 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (30 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.