Damac 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Damac (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Damac face Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Al Okhdood at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Thursday 23 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Damac stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Damac have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al Okhdood — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Al Okhdood have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Damac are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Damac: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Al Okhdood, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2025, ended Damac 1–0 Al Okhdood — a Damac win.
The head-to-head data gives Damac an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Okhdood trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al Okhdood 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.41 xG and Al Okhdood 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.795 / defence 0.848 | Al Okhdood attack 0.706 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.409. Damac's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.41. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Damac's last 62 games and Al Okhdood's last 62.
Result probabilities: Damac 50% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 22%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.99 | Draw 3.68 | Al Okhdood 4.46. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Damac 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 50% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Damac 1.41 / Al Okhdood 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.795 / def 0.848 | Al Okhdood attack 0.706 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Damac (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Al Okhdood xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al Okhdood FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Damac vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Damac 2 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Damac vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Okhdood part of?
Damac vs Al Okhdood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 50% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Damac and Al Okhdood will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Damac vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Damac's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 62 games and Al Okhdood's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.68
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Damac xG
Total xG
2.26
0.84
Al Okhdood xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al Okhdood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Damac and 0.84 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac's recent record stands at 13W 19D 30L from 62 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 38L across 62 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 0.94 PPG, Al Okhdood on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Damac have managed 8W 10D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Okhdood's away record stands at 7W 4D 19L across their last 30 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.90 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al Okhdood
Current Season
Damac (Home) vs Al Okhdood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Current Season
Al Okhdood
Current Season
❓ Damac vs Al Okhdood Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 13W 19D 30L in their last 62 games (0.94 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 13W 11D 38L in their last 62 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Okhdood away?
Damac's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.13 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 23 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Damac's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Damac
1
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al Okhdood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Okhdood?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 5, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Okhdood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 April 2026: Damac 2-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Okhdood?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 60%, Al Okhdood 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Damac) and 43% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Okhdood in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al Okhdood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al Okhdood matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Damac's recent matches and 43% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Damac and Al Okhdood matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Damac's recent games and 43% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Okhdood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Damac's recent matches and 60% of Al Okhdood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.41 xG and Al Okhdood 0.84 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.80 / defence 0.85 against Al Okhdood attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 50% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 22%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al Okhdood 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 0.94 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.