Damac 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025 at 14:20 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 4W 4D 2L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Damac, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 2–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 59% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 52% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.21 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.055 / defence 1.069 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.007 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.368. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Damac games / 54 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Damac 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Damac 1.21 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.055 / def 1.069 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.007 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 14:20 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Damac 0 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 31% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (5 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Damac's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
31%
3.22
26%
3.90
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Damac xG
Total xG
2.68
1.47
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Damac and 1.47 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Damac have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 16W 17D 21L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 31W 10D 13L from 54 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (10W 10D 7L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 13W 5D 9L from 27 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.91 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 16W 17D 21L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 31W 10D 13L in their last 54 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.48 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Damac
3
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 59%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Damac) and 59% (Al-Ahli Jeddah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%; Damac have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Damac's games and 52% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Damac's matches and 59% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Damac 0-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.21 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Damac fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.01 / defence 0.76, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 52%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.