Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al Shabab's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Al Shabab have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Al Shabab's games and 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC edge it 5 wins to 3, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Dec 2025, ended Al Shabab 0–2 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 64% and Al-Ittihad FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al-Ittihad FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.51 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.067 / defence 1.475 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.210 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.402. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.210, which lifts their away xG to 2.50. Al Shabab's defence rating of 1.475 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 66 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 66.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 22% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 4.65 | Draw 4.98 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.71. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.51 / 2.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 22% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Al Shabab 1.51 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.067 / def 1.475 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.210 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
2.50
Al-Ittihad FC xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Shabab 3 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 58% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.21x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 2.50.
These ratings are built from Al Shabab's last 66 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 1-3 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
22%
4.65
20%
4.98
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
4.02
2.50
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.65
22%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
8%
12.21
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
2%
56.72
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al Shabab and 2.50 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 25W 17D 24L from 66 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 42W 12D 12L across 66 games — 2.09 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Shabab heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 15W 6D 12L from their last 33 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 16W 10D 7L across their last 33 away games, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.98 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 64%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al Shabab (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 25W 17D 24L in their last 66 games (1.39 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 42W 12D 12L in their last 66 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.55 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Shabab
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Shabab have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Al Shabab, 73% for Al-Ittihad FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Shabab and 58% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Shabab's games and 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Shabab's matches and 58% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Shabab defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.51 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.50 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.07 / defence 1.48 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.93, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 22% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Al Shabab win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al-Ittihad FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.