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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 64% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 57% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.21 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.883 / defence 0.863 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.460 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.399. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Al-Ittihad FC games / 67 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 25% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 40% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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