Al Shabab 1-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Al Taawon meet at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al Shabab (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 5W 2D 3L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Shabab, 1 for Al Taawon and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 54% versus Al Taawon 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 61% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.39 xG and Al Taawon 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.029 / defence 0.831 | Al Taawon attack 0.956 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.482. Data: 44 Al Shabab games / 44 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 41% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 40% | Al Taawon 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 41% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Al Shabab 1.39 / Al Taawon 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.029 / def 0.831 | Al Taawon attack 0.956 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al Taawon xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Al Shabab 1 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 41% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Record (4 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.96x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.62
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.57
1.18
Al Taawon xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.18 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 21W 9D 14L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 23W 11D 10L from 44 games, 1.82 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.82 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Al Shabab are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 11W 5D 5L from 21 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.55 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 21W 9D 14L in their last 44 games (1.64 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 23W 11D 10L in their last 44 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.05 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 1-5 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
3
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al Taawon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al Shabab 1-5 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 38%, Al Taawon 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al Shabab) and 48% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 62% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al Shabab's recent games and 48% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Shabab 1-2 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.39 xG and Al Taawon 1.18 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.03 / defence 0.83 against Al Taawon attack 0.96 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 41% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 31%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 61%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.64 PPG, Al Taawon 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.