Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Riyadh face Al-Fateh.

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Full Analysis

Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Riyadh versus Al-Fateh in Pro League (matchday 32). Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:05 UK time.

Form

Al Riyadh (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Riyadh's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Fateh have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Al Riyadh, 0.90 for Al-Fateh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) — Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Fateh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2026, ended Al Riyadh 1–3 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 60% and Al-Fateh 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 55% | Al-Fateh 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.26 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.766 / defence 1.050 | Al-Fateh attack 0.802 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.453. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 65 games and Al-Fateh's last 65.

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Fateh 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.74 | Draw 3.47 | Al-Fateh 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 away games).

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