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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Najma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fateh host Al Najma at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 14 May 2026 at 16:55 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Najma — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Najma away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 0.90 PPG versus Al Najma's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Najma 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Fateh trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Al Najma trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 66% and Al Najma 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 47% | Al Najma 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.98 xG and Al Najma 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.952 / defence 1.007 | Al Najma attack 0.615 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.436. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Al-Fateh games / 32 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 23% | Al Najma 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Al Najma 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Najma 40% BTTS from recent games.

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