Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Qadisiyah FC's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Nassr have collected 3.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Al-Nassr's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.40 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Nassr are 0.90 PPG clear of Al-Qadisiyah FC over their recent games (3.00 vs 2.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Al-Nassr managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2026, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Al-Nassr — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Qadisiyah FC and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% versus Al-Nassr 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Al-Nassr 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.36 xG and Al-Nassr 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.338 / defence 0.819 | Al-Nassr attack 1.485 / defence 0.677. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.439. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.338 — their 1.36 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr bring a tight defence (rating 0.677, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output down. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.485, which lifts their away xG to 1.75. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 64 games and Al-Nassr's last 64.

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.34 | Draw 4.25 | Al-Nassr 2.15. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.36 / 1.75) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Al-Nassr are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 40% (last 10 away games).

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