Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 72% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games) — Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Hazm in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Jan 2026, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 5–1 Al-Hazm — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 69% and Al-Hazm 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Al-Hazm 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.42 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.411 / defence 0.776 | Al-Hazm attack 0.729 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.429. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.411 — their 2.42 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Al-Qadisiyah FC have a tight defence (rating 0.776), which is pulling Al-Hazm's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 66 games and Al-Hazm's last 32.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 18% | Al-Hazm 10%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.39 | Draw 5.59 | Al-Hazm 10.08. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (72%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, matchday 33 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 18% | Al-Hazm 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.42 / Al-Hazm 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.411 / def 0.776 | Al-Hazm attack 0.729 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al-Hazm xG
51%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm FAQs
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm is a Pro League fixture (matchday 33) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 72% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.41x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.73x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 66 games and Al-Hazm's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.59
10%
10.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.22
0.81
Al-Hazm xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
10.08
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
9%
11.19
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
1%
112.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.81 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 21W 8D 3L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Hazm's form line: 10W 9D 13L from 32 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.25 PPG from their last 16 home games (10W 6D 0L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 7D 6L from their last 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.12 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 62%.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
Al-Hazm
Current Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC (Home) vs Al-Hazm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
Al-Hazm
Current Season
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm Form FAQs
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 21W 8D 3L in their last 32 games (2.22 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 14 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 May 2026: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 62%, Al-Hazm 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 56% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 62% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 56% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 62% of Al-Hazm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Hazm 2-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.42 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.78 against Al-Hazm attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 18% | Al-Hazm 10%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 72%, Al-Hazm 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.