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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Hazm host Al Taawon at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Hazm — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hazm have posted 6W 1D 3L at Al-Hazem Club Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Al Taawon's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hazm at 1.40 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

Al Taawon have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Al-Hazm's 0 victories.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Taawon have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al Taawon in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 61% and Al Taawon 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 61% | Al Taawon 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.16 xG and Al Taawon 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.874 / defence 1.212 | Al Taawon attack 1.265 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.399. Al Taawon have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Al-Hazm games / 67 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 59%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Al Taawon 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 70% | Al Taawon 80% BTTS from recent games.

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